A repair-or-replace call is the highest-stakes recommendation a service technician makes, and it is usually made verbally, at the equipment, with nothing written down. The owner then hears a number and has no way to check the reasoning behind it. This report exists to put the reasoning on paper: seven indicators, each one either fires or does not, each one printed with the arithmetic that decided it and the source it came from. Three or more pointing toward replacement makes replacement the recommendation. One or two makes it monitor. None makes it repair.
The first two indicators are about age, and they come from different places. ASHRAE publishes median service life figures gathered from survey data — 15 years for a residential split-system air conditioner or air-to-air heat pump, 18 for a gas- or oil-fired furnace, 20 for a fan coil, 25 for a steel fire-tube boiler, 35 for a cast iron hot water boiler, 30 for ductwork. Median means precisely half that surveyed population had been replaced by that age, and half had not, so passing it is a signal and never a verdict. Separately, ENERGY STAR advises considering replacement once a heat pump or air conditioner is more than 10 years old, or a furnace or boiler more than 15. Those two thresholds disagree, deliberately, and the report shows both rather than averaging them into a single number that represents neither source.
The efficiency indicator compares what is installed against what a current minimum-efficiency replacement would deliver. Since 1 January 2023, central air conditioner and heat pump standards under 10 CFR 430.32(c) are written in SEER2, EER2 and HSPF2 — metrics produced by DOE appendix M1, which re-tests the same equipment at 0.50 in. w.c. external static pressure instead of 0.10. That fivefold increase is meant to reflect the duct systems equipment is actually installed on, and it pushes the rating down. SEER2 is therefore not a renamed SEER, and a nameplate rated before 2023 has to be converted before it can be compared. AHRI publishes approximate factors of roughly 0.95 for SEER to SEER2 and 0.85 for HSPF to HSPF2; this builder applies them and states on the report that it has, because only a re-test under appendix M1 gives an exact figure.
The current minimums themselves are worth stating precisely, because the regional structure is routinely reported backwards. For split-system air conditioners the floor is 13.4 SEER2 in the North for all capacities; in the Southeast and Southwest it is 14.3 SEER2 below 45,000 Btu/h and 13.8 SEER2 at 45,000 Btu/h and above. Split-system heat pumps are national — 14.3 SEER2 and 7.5 HSPF2 — as are single-package units at 13.4 SEER2 and, for heat pumps, 6.7 HSPF2. Non-weatherized gas furnaces sit at 80% AFUE under 10 CFR 430.32(e), a standard in force since 19 November 2015; a 2023 DOE final rule raises that to 95% AFUE for units manufactured on or after 18 December 2028, which is not yet the standard an installed furnace is measured against. Where a rating falls short, the saving is expressed the only defensible way: annual energy for that end use is inversely proportional to the seasonal metric, so a unit at 9.5 SEER2 replaced with one at 14.3 SEER2 uses about 34% less cooling energy. That is the equipment end use, not the utility bill.
Refrigerant is the area where honest reporting matters most, because two unrelated rules get merged into one sales line. R-22 is genuinely constrained: US production and import of HCFC-22 ended on 1 January 2020 under Clean Air Act Title VI, so servicing an R-22 system now depends on reclaimed and previously produced stock, and a charge-related repair carries real cost and availability risk. R-410A is a different situation entirely. Under the EPA Technology Transitions rule made under the AIM Act, new residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump systems manufactured or imported from 1 January 2025 must use a refrigerant below 700 GWP, which is why replacement equipment now arrives with R-454B or R-32. But R-410A is still produced, and an installed R-410A system remains legal to operate and legal to charge. This report treats R-22 as a replacement indicator and R-410A as a note, because that is what the rules actually say.
That leaves the two cost tests, and both are labelled honestly as what they are. The "$5,000 rule" — multiply the equipment age in years by the quoted repair cost and replace if the product exceeds $5,000 — appears on a great many contractor pages and in no DOE, EPA, ENERGY STAR or ASHRAE publication. It is a trade heuristic. It also has a structural weakness beyond its provenance: a fixed dollar threshold set against an earlier decade's equipment prices drifts toward recommending replacement every year that prices rise. The repair-to-replacement cost ratio is the same kind of rule, with commonly circulated thresholds running from a third to a half and no published basis; this builder uses the higher figure, so the tool is not the one pushing toward the larger sale. Both appear on the report marked "trade heuristic" alongside indicators marked "published source", because a homeowner deciding between a $600 repair and an $9,000 replacement is entitled to know which lines carry an authority behind them.